ARE WELSH VOTERS DIVERGING FROM TRADITIONAL POLITICS?
BY David Edwards
19 February 2026
This was the question tackled - in a well informed and entertaining manner - at the latest lecture in the 2025/6 season of Llanelli Workers Educational Association (WEA) talks.
The lecture - copiously illustrated by multicoloured charts and graphs- was given by Dr Jac Larner, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Cardiff University, and member of Wales Governance Centre. It was hosted by Cllr Susan Lewis of Llanelli Rural Council. Jac set the scene by setting out the long view of Welsh politics and how it has been far more stable than in England and elsewhere. Welsh Labour has been the largest party, by seats and votes, since 1920. And this followed 60 years of Liberal rule: continual single party dominance. Even in 2024, Labour had 84% of Senedd seats, but with a decline in votes, suggesting that the electorate is feeling less close to Labour: 'we vote for a party we hate the least'. Jac also commented that 'the longer you are in power the more likely you are to be kicked out'.
He went on to explore how social change and the population's view of its national identity have an important part to play in voting decisions. Many people feeling strongly Welsh see themselves as less British. That said, the electorate is nevertheless influenced by UK wide trends such as the rise of Reform and the switch of Conservative voters to Nigel Farage's party. In Wales, it seemed that the party best placed to resist Reform is Plaid, and this partially explained their success in recent polls (though Jack commented that Wales is currently not well served by pollsters, who do not accurately reflect the characteristics of our electorate).
Jac sees 2026 as a critical juncture in Welsh politics. Not only is the nature of the electorate changing, with changes in party allegiances as already described, but the May elections - for an enlarged Senedd - will be held using a new electoral system, using the 'D'Hondt' system of voting analysis. This system is a form of proportional representation which, overall, favours large parties. It seems very likely that in May we will indeed witness considerable divergence in Welsh voting patterns.
Jac's presentation prompted a lively discussion and it seems likely that he will be fully occupied until May and beyond!
